Spatial microsimulation modelling of care needs, costs and the capacity for self-provision: detailed regional projections for older Australians to 2020

Recent research suggests that a significant proportion of 'baby boomers' are likely to be financially unprepared for retirement. CareMod is a spatial microsimulation model that is being constructed as a strategic planning and decision-support tool for forecasting the future demand for care by older Australians; the likely cost of aged care support; and the financial capacity of older Australians to bear a greater share of these costs. It is being developed by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) in partnership with the Office for an Ageing Australia and NSW Department of Disability, Ageing and Home Care. This paper outlines the technical development of CareMod, including the 'regionalisation' methodology that underpins the generation of small area estimates.